3.2 Big installer vs small installer — which one is actually safer

The intuition is "go with the big brand, they'll be around longer." Industry reality says the opposite:

• Among the top 10 U.S. residential solar installers, more than 16 have gone bankrupt or shut down in 2024–2025, including SunPower (August 2024), Sunnova (June 2025), ADT Solar, Sunworks, iSun, Vision Solar, Pink Energy, and Titan Solar Power.
• Sunrun reports massive losses year after year. Tesla's solar installs have dropped more than 70% from their 2017 peak.
• A typical large-installer sales commission is in the five figures ($10k–$30k), plus third-party platform fees and ad spend. 30–50% of what the customer pays goes to the sales channel, not to hardware or installation.
• Large installers run on leveraged debt. High interest rates + inflation + NEM 3.0 is a triple shock to cash flow. Bankruptcy probability is *higher*, not lower.

Conclusion: a big installer's "longevity" is an illusion. What actually decides your 20-year experience is: (1) whether you can talk directly to the install team, (2) whether the crew is local and in-house or subcontracted, (3) whether they will walk through every contract clause with you.