Guide OverviewChapter 3 · Choosing Your Installer
Chapter 3 · Choosing Your Installer

3.3 Five lessons from the SunPower bankruptcy

  1. U.S. solar companies have no genuine technological moat — the cells, inverters, and chemistry inside their equipment all come from the same handful of Asian factories everyone else uses.
  2. Policy shifts are lethal: the end of the federal ITC + NEM 3.0 + high interest rates, all changing at once, guarantees a wave of consolidation and bankruptcies.
  3. Heavy dependence on builder tie-ups: California's Title 24 makes solar mandatory on new homes; SunPower signed exclusives with home builders and forced new homeowners to "accept" undersized systems at 2–3× market price.
  4. Subcontracted installs + unlicensed labor + multiple roofs per day: the production-line model produces a steady stream of warranty defects.
  5. Third-party-owned (TPO) contracts carry 25 years of "receivable" on the balance sheet, but operating cash flow is negative. The moment debt rollover fails, the whole structure collapses.
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